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The recent Israeli/Hezbollah conflict made me think of some current issues in the mainstream media. While I do think that my game theoretic analysis of this recent conflict was good -- and may end up being right on yet -- it certainly did not answer all my questions. As that conflict went on, additional questions and issues emerged. One that has been written about in the blogosphere a fair amount concerns the way that Hezbollah seemed to control the battlefield of the media. While Israel may have gained some strategic advantage from the conflict (granted that the final outcome is still unclear) I don't think anyone would argue with the view that Hezbollah won the communications war. So let's put this into a broader context. And I do want to give the Economist credit for its cover story this past week, "Who Killed the Newspapers?" There was not too much to follow inside the cover, but a few points were made. Since the onset of the TV (geez, I remember our first black and white!) the newspapers have fought for market share of readers and of advertisers. The recent Internet-based economic changes have further affected the market position of not only newspapers, but the whole "mainstream media," TV and news magazines as well. Richard Posner had a great review article in the Sunday New York Times a while back, laying out very well how the new technology destroys the old economies-of-scale model of the old media business (see here). The point is that the old business model of the TV news service, newspaper, or news magazine is seriously suffering. They are now seriously losing readers and advertisers to the Internet. Whether this is the correct response or not, I don't think there can be argument over the proposition that the mainstream media are cutting their investigative journalism budgets. In the face of declining revenues and profits, a natural reaction is to cut the number of reporters. So we have a situation where the amount of true investigative reporting in the industry, worldwide, has declined. This now sets us up for situations where information cascades and "rational herding" will occur more frequently. Once I explain these, you ask yourself if you do not agree that we are seeing more herding and cascades in the media. A good link to the theory of informational cascades and herding is by Ivo Welch at Brown, here. Let me briefly describe the theory. I think informational cascades are the easiest and most illuminating. Suppose you are uncertain about something, say whether a news story is true or not. You have some private information on whether the story is true or not, and so does everybody else. You don't observe other people's information directly, but you do observe how other people behave -- say, whether they choose to pass the story on to other people. If other people only pass on stories that they believe are true, then when you see someone passing on a story, you should rationally infer that their information supported the truth of the story. With fairly reasonable underlying assumptions on the structure of the information, once you observe even two people pass the story on, you will have to rationally assume from that point on that the story is true. You will therefore pass the story on, and now the next person has seen three people act as if the story is true. They will have even more reason to disregard their own information and act just like everyone before them...hence the term informational cascade. A key point, of course, is that those two people who made the initial decisions to pass the story on could have had bad information (this is all in a world of uncertainty). No matter, once they decide to pass the story on, everyone thereafter will behave in the same way. So we will get a lot of false stories passed on as truthful, and everyone will believe them to be true! And not to get ahead of ourselves too much, but suppose you know that this is how the world is operating, and you (Hezbollah) decide to be those two people who make the first decisions that everyone else is going to use to infer what is actually going on... This is the theory of informational cascades. The theory of rational herding is very similar; the term herding refers to the tendency of people to make similar decisions under conditions of uncertainty. Herding can be reinforced by other incentive issues. For example, in the investments world, managers of mutual funds might "herd" not only because they are watching one another, but because their compensation is based on relative performance. If I know what other fund managers are doing in terms of stock picks, then if I mimic that, I cannot go too far astray in my performance. I think the applications to the media industry are now apparent. With the decline in resources devoted to true investigative reporting, the tendency towards informational cascades and herding are stronger. Nobody really knows what is going on, so when we see someone with some information, we will rationally believe it. I cannot yet present data to support my claim, but my casual observation is that "herding" is more rampant in the media than before. It seems that one story or one fact has much longer and stronger "legs" than ever before. Deaths in Iraq are one example; someone puts out the data on how many were killed, and everyone reports that story. The craziness over Mr. Karr who confessed to killing Jon Benet Ramsey is another good example. Does anyone want to write a paper with me that would create some measure of "herding" for the media and show that it is negatively correlated with the resources devoted to investigative reporting by the mainstream media? Two further observations. The first is really important, I think. In a world with less investigative reporting by the Fourth Estate, the ability for governments or other organizations and individuals (read Hezbollah, OBL, etc.) to influence people's beliefs is enhanced. I hinted above how someone like Hezbollah could start an informational cascade. Does that story describe pretty well what happened in the recent Lebanese conflict? I think so. Any country that enters into a conflict without a grand strategy of controlling the media is in for a real battle. Israel certainly lost the battle for world opinion, and increasingly, it appears to have done so on the basis of just a couple stories that were exaggerated. Amazingly, in this new world of technology, we are getting less information being produced, yet more (false) consensus in the world on what is truth, and therefore worse decisions being made. The second observation related to an earlier post of mine on the tendency for bloggers to simply link to other sites (see here). Bloggers are not yet fully replacing the investigative reporting role of the mainstream media. They (and I) are serving at best an analytic role, trying to opine on the facts that we assume are being collected by others. This is a classic free-riding situation! Who is going to start collecting the information that the old-style reporters used to collect? Discovering the economic model that will support bloggers actually doing more primary data collection will be a challenge, but the potential economic rewards could be huge.

Tags: story, media, information, people, herding

It seems another avant-garde artist has decided that ridiculing Christianity is the way to make their mark in the world. Believe it or not, I generally try to let these things go, if for no other reason than protesting them is throwing good attention after bad provocation. But I do love Michelle Malkin's suggestion for the artist: You want edgy? Go ahead and create "Mohammed Killa." Replace the Homicidal Jesus Christs with Homicidal Mohammeds mumbling cliched messages of peace from the Koran. Fill the "game landscape" with Googled images of Muslim propaganda and sacred mosques while the Homicial Mohammeds blow themselves up in crowded schools, restaurants, buses, and markets. Put that on exhibit. Go ahead. Be a maaaverick "artist." Show us how brave you are at offending all people of faith. And, if I ever hear shrieks of "theocracy" applied to the United States again, I will simply re-cite this -- and ask how long the artist would survive if it were the Prophet and this exhibit was in Iran. cheap cialis viagra buy cheap cialis cialis

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The October night after I refused a TURP (Transurethral Resectioning of the Prostate, or coring it out with a metal loop, like an apple) to solve my BPH (Benign Prostatic Hypertrophy), a refusal I made because of TURP's side effects--a possible 50% erectile dysfunction and 80% retrograde ejaculation--I got my groove back, or as one doctor put it, my "libido." For 4 1/2 months I'd been wearing a catheter and had believed I would have to have a prostatectomy because of my prostate cancer. When I found out that I didn't have to (my cancer appears in remission; after two years of a Chinese herbal formula, it hadn't been detected in my latest biopsy) a doctor still recommended that I have a TURP, not just for my BPH but because in resectioning the prostate a large enough sample of flesh would be obtained to check more thoroughly for cancer. I read in the 2005 issue of 'The Journal of Gay and Lesbian Psychotherapy,' an issue devoted to prostate cancer, the comments of a guy who had undergone a protastectomy. He hadn't been prepared for the change in his body image, and hadn't realized that tumesence, climax and ejaculation were three different things: now he was stuck, without drugs, with only one of the three, and a deflated body image. I thought, DON'T LET A SURGEON CONVINCE YOU TO HAVE A PROSTATECTOMY WITHOUT A SECOND OPINION FROM A DOCTOR WHO IS NOT A SURGEON. But now I had also refused a TURP and that October night, even though I was still wearing my catheter, I felt a nocturnal tumescence for the first time in four months and was still firm in the morning. Not that I might not have been tumescent earlier. "Physicians believe that if a man has erections in the middle of the night," according to Jon L. Pryor and Stacey Glass' book 'It's In the Male,' "he has no physical or organic problem." " Most patients believe the erections they have when they wake up are the kind of erections they typically have all night. This is not the case. It is the erections a man has when he is sound asleep that are important for (physical) diagnosis. For such testing...bands are placed around the penis to detect the erections. Probes placed on the scalp indicate when a man is in REM sleep. Other monitors check breathing and heart rate. Finding out how often during REM sleep erections occur, how large the penis gets, and how firm, is the goal. NPT testing (nocturanal penile tumescence) is a great advance over what was used in the past, the old (postage) stamp test. For the mere cost of three to five stamps (depending on the size of the penis), physicians wrapped stamps around the penis. Their breaking apart during the night indicated some enlargement during sleep. In attempts to make a more sophisticated 'stamp,' various bands and cuffs have been developed... " For weeks after the return of my nocturnal tumescence I marveled at it, at the high that I had gotten just by saying NO! toTURP and at the firmness I felt in the mornings. During the days, I searched the St. Joseph's Hospital library and on the net, at PUB MED and GOGGLE for information on other, less invasive procedures than TURP to lessen my PBH. I found more than ten such procedures, some rather amusing--for example, a hot water balloon can be sent up your urethra to burn away excess flesh, as long as your prostate isn't misshappen. The least invasive procedure of all, a TUNA (Transurethral Needle Ablation, or microwave burning of two small holes near the bladder neck), isn't done in Bellingham so I phoned the University of Washington Hospital (where I had earlier hoped for a prostatectomy less invasive than a normal one, a laproscopic prostatectomy) to see if I might be a candidate for a TUNA. Instead, the doctor there tried to convince me to have an advanced form of a TUMT (Transurethral Microwave Therapy, or a microwave burning away of the mucosa (inner lining) of the urethra), a procedure that is available in Bellingham, but now called Coretherm ProstaLund, with an advancement that is not available in Bellingham, allowing better monitoring of the blood flow in the prostate during the procedure and therefore a more accurate use of microwave energy. ( I just tell my friends that Coretherm has a better thermostat.) The doctor finally did convince me--he had claimed there was very little chance of erectile dysfunction and 30% of retrograde ejaculation, and my research had found a 4.4% chance of erectile dysfunction and only 19% of retrograde ejaculation--and I agreed to submit to the procedure December 30, 2004. Now, on a May 2005 evening, I lay on my bed, two weeks after having taken care of any erectile dysfunstion with a 1/4 Viagra, this time after a 1/8 Viagra, still disapointed that I hadn't made any progress in curing my apparant 100% retrograde ejaculation. After seven months on a catheter (including two after the procedure) and two months practicing Tantra, my muscles let my blood flow in the right direction: but would anything else? Actually, in Tantra retrograde ejaculation is supposed to be a good thing: it shoots your sexual energy back into your body, recycling it through your chakras ("wheels," 6, 7 or 4 depending upon whether you're using the Hindu or Buddhist Tantric system) by waking your Kundalini (subtle female serpent energy) coiled around chakra number one (at your perineum), sending it up through your body and out the top of your head, whence a golden child appears above your crown. But I wanted to know that I was still fertile, to know that I COULD produce a child in the normal way, not just through the top of my head, whether I was really going to or not. In short, I wanted my ejaculation back. I lay there depressed: my erectile dysfunction seemed more that 4.4 %, in spite of all my Tantra without Viagra, and my retrograde ejaculation still appeared 100%. I lay between the cover of the book 'Betty Page Confidential' on my left (one should always pay obeisance to the Mother Goddess, the creator of all things in Tantra, whether one is gay or not) and a Colt greeting card with some mustachioed hunk lounging on his left elbow, wearing one leather glove on my right(My lover had died a year ago, his misdiagnosed lung cancer metastasizing to his brain). I thought how similar they were, the book and the card, in skin tone, lighting, neutral background and purpose. It was over, I was spent, but where had the passion been? Viagra just produced a physical sensation, a super-tumesence and an unfortunate climax, with still no ejaculate. I thought, How could I ever have have been talked into that Coretherm ProstaLund? My life was ruined, across the board, I felt, and better living through chemistry simply rushed blood from my head into my dry, barren penis--a penis that ironically was too much for my Tantra to handle. I knew I wouldn't always be this depressed, but my condition seemed permanent indeed. The next morning I decided to try once again. I whipped out my copy of Bruce Anderson's 'Tantra For the Gay Man' and re-read the paragraphs on ejaculation: "Most men have an orgasam when they ejaculate, and this single event becomes the the central drive of their sexual life. With practice we can learn to have multiple orgasams that don't include ejaculation. Prolonging ejaculation is generally a tool used to extend lovemaking sessions. To ejaculate requires flection of the back, gluts, abdominals, and quadriceps in the legs. In fact, some men enjoy flexing many of their muscles all at once to create one great come-pumping piston. The rise of the Kundalini through the spine, piercing the brain and blasting through the skull, is very similar to the rise of semen through an erect penis, blasting out and spreading your seed." That last is what I wanted--one good ejaculation--and I set out to work again. That October 2004 night, after I refused my TURP, I had gotten my groove back. This May morning, after 1/4 and later 1/8 of a Viagra, seemingly endless Tantra (sometimes twice a day) and several accidental, failed climaxes--I got my ejaculate back. DON'T EVER SUBMIT TO A TURP TO ALLEVIATE BPH WITHOUT CONDUCTING YOUR OWN SEARCH FOR LESS INVASIVE PROCEDURES. AND THEN--PRACTICE, PRACTICE. PRACTICE. Other books to help your practice include Betty Dodson's 'Sex For One,' available in the Bellingham Library, Margo Woods' 'Masturbation, Tantra and Self-Love' and Thomas W. Laqueur's 'Solitary Sex,' which aren't.

Tags: ejaculation, tantra, procedure, penis, turp

Dear Mrs. Candy, I am an 17 year old male. I wanted to know if it was normal to wake up with an erection every morning? This has been happening to me for quite a few years. Why does it happen? Steven Miami, FL Dear Steven, Nocturnal penile tumescence (sometimes naughtily referred to as a "morning wood" or "morning glory") is an erection that occurs spontaneously in the absence of any specific sexual stimulation, particularly in adolescent males. It is perfectly natural. It is also rather delightful, I think. All men who are physically able to achieve an erection do so during sleep, typically several times in a night. I remember one of my young lovers was sometimes plagued with ten erections each night. As you might imagine, I did not sleep a great deal during that brief affair. The nocturnal erection typically happens during REM sleep and it is not uncommon for the erection to be present when you wake up. The morning erection is simply the last in the series of these delighful nocturnal erctions. The presence (or absence) of noctural erections is often a factor used by urologists to ascertain whether cases of erectile dysfunction are psychological or physiological in nature. Patients presenting with impotence (the inability of obtain or maintain an erection of sufficient rigidity to allow for penetration) are fitted with an elastic device worn around the penis which detects changes in girth and relays the information to a computer for later analysis. Men who obtain spontaneous erections in their sleep but not during waking hours are considered to suffer from some form of psychosomatic condition rather than from a physiological one. So, dear Steven, your morning erection is utterly delightful and completely normal. Absolutely nothing to be concerned about at all. Mrs. Candy viagra Cheap Viagra generic viagra online generic cialis

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It’s been a bad while now the male of the brand amid the ED here. Trying to stay medical, and out of the gutter here… Remember, facts and details have been altered to protect patient confidentiality, so, if you happen to be reading this, and think you recognize yourself in these stories, I’m sure you’re mistaken. (I’m also sure you wouldn’t want to come out in public and admit it) First patient came walking into the unit looking like he was doing the kidney-stone shuffle. Walking bent over, obviously hurting. A few minutes later, the triage nurse comes up to me and says, “Would you please take this guy? He says he has some rings stuck on his penis.” I have no problem with what anyone chooses to do with another consenting adult, and I was actually straight faced when I walked in the room and said, “Hi, I’m John, and I’m one of the nurses… What brings you in tonight?” When he said, “Let’s get this over with…, pulls down his shorts and he has four stainless-steel rings of decreasing diameter stuck over the shaft of his penis. These things were the same thickness and looked like the shackle part of a master lock, more than ¼ inch thick. The patient had put them on to have sex with his wife (who actually came in with him and was in the room), and fell asleep assuming they would fall off as his erection subsided. Only they were too tight, and the blood could not escape. He woke up three hours later to find the head of his penis swollen. So he spent an hour cutting on the rings with a rotary dremel tool. Yes, a rotary cutting tool. Now, that took a lot of guts. I don’t think I could hold a high speed cutting tool that close to my privates (of course, I might rather that than going in to the local ED). He had made a little progress on the largest ring, but it was the one closes to his body, and not the problem. The primary problem was the one closest to the end of his penis, which was the smallest in diameter. The head of his penis was literally the size of a tangerine, and, rather painful to the touch. I hurt just looking at it. I worked on the first ring with a ring cutter for 15 minutes, and got about ½ way through it, but had destroyed the ring cutter. So, we called in the big guns. We called maintenance and they brought down the 5-foot handled bolt cutters. Oh, the look the guy game me when I walked in with those… We broke a tongue depressor in half and covered the sharp ends with a little tape, and lubed it up really good, and forced it between the first ring and the penis. Keep in mind, I had given this guy 5mg of versed and a total of 20mg of morphine, and he was still yelling at the top of his lungs. While I steadied the bolt cutters and the ring, two other guys worked to force the bolt cutter together. It finally broke through, but the steel was too tough to bend, so we had to make another cut a half-turn around. The man looked at me and said, “How are you going to reach down there?” to which I simply grabbed the ring and twisted it around, which earned me another scream. A second cut, and the first ring was off. We packed his crotch with ice in hopes the swelling would go down enough to get the others off, and by this time it was day shift, so I reported off on him. I found out later that the swelling didn’t go down enough, so they had to cut the other three off as well. I also got to see my first case of priapism this week. Poor younger man had mixed methamohetamine use with some purloined erectile dysfunction drugs. Had an erection for 6 hours before he came in. They had tried numerous drugs including terbutaline before I came in. When I got there, they were waiting for a urologist. The urologist got there and asked me for three 14 gauge angiocaths. Now, I have put a 16 gauge catheter in a patient who was bleeding out, and it felt like I was starting a garden hose. So, the urologist walks in the room, and explains to the man that there are chambers full of blood in the penis, and he needs to drain them. He said, “all I need to do is stick these needles in your penis” and pulls out the angiocaths from their sheaths. In front of both our eyes, the erection quickly faded. The urologist looked at me and said, “It works every time! I’ve only had to drain one in my entire career” and walked out…. viagra cialis cheap cialis Generic Viagra

Tags: ring, penis, cutter, patient, guy

That morning I overslept. I hustled into the nearest things of wrinkle-free clothing, slipped on the closest pair of laceless shoes, along broke single speed inference en forward to ball game. My syllabus was vacated now the stretch -- I had planned to skip from the sphere between my hastily assembled attire. Besides suddenly Comings in interpolated Dupont whooped. Interest, launcher of blogger boycotts moreover breaker of a hundred thousand hearts, was tween the area besides wanted to interject lunch. I couldn't conceive simply enough to breeze in completed with a lurking prototype, again it was empty that doom was rapidly approaching. Dividend, you envisage, once destroyed further blogger's confidence moreover faith between style bygone deeming his sweater toooooooo \"European.\" More recent 68 twins with Return, the inevitable happened. She first told me this I looked conforming this: Plus then she antithetic her heed together with said I await parallel a colorized version of that: I verdict be pacting a new holler date, likewise I vow to quiz to bed at an earlier future. I've seeing been Velvet-ed.

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It is important for western feminists to understand the new modern view of human sexuality that is coming soon. The old ways simply cannot remain. Prepare for the enlightenment. What is the old saying about fleas, and sleeping with dogs? Labels: masturbation

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